Abstract: The classical Forrester model of world dynamics is a system of 5 differential equations related with 5 macro-economical variables (population, resources, etc.). This model was developed at 1970-1971 but by the moment its stability to noise was not studied. The plan of experiments is described and the results of modeling are presented. It proved that a) noise affects stronger initial data then the model during its functionality b) change of resources is the most critical value in comparison with the other system variables. All experiments have been made by means of the program WorldDyn? developed on MatLab?.

Keywords: Forrester model, word dynamics noise immunity, numerical analysis

Link:

TESTING STABILITY OF THE CLASSICAL FORRESTER MODEL TO INITIAL DATA AND ADDITIVE NOISE

Olga Proncheva, Mikhail Alexandrov, Sergey Makhov

http://www.foibg.com/ibs_isc/ibs-26/ibs-26-p14.pdf